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Price Action Alert: Pivotal Ranges Trading

Bitcoin Markets showing signs of life. Heads up, this could be a mover. Patterns saying upside but have bears really flatlined? Only one way to find out.


EMAs (BFX:$BTCUSD)
1D 100/200 EMAs

Still showing big divergence on the 1D 100/200 EMAs. Going to take a lot more than that to see these cross. Building support even by this measure. Expect a test of the 02/20 high and support at the 1D 100 EMA to confirm upside continuation.

4H 100/200 EMAs

Pushing for the first 4H golden cross since the ATH. When I looked back on these back in BTFD (Vol 2), about ~16% led to a false signal and do not develop into a trend. The confirmed 4H golden crosses, however, did result in massive upside opportunities. Even in consideration of the 16% fakeouts, this pattern expectancy has paid well over time. Even on conservative expectations, percentage moves up from here could be massive in dollar terms.

1H 100/200 EMAs

Looking to 1H EMAs for leading indicators on the 4H, we see more potential reversal confirmation.

The 1H has a lot more noise on EMA expectancy. You can see we’ve had recent 1H crosses that looked more like fakeouts than breakouts. For example, the January 1H golden cross didn’t stick and turned right back into extended down. The first February golden cross held longer but again didn’t stick before crossing down. Interestingly though, the last death cross also failed to stick and EMAs have now crossed back above.

Very interesting to note this occurring right in advance of the 4H cross. 1H saying all systems go on the 4H golden. Will find out short term if these crosses gets confirmed, and if so, could be bigtime upside coming up.


Channels (BFX:$BTCUSD)
Dec 2017 Channel & Bearish Inflection
1W Chart 1D Chart

You can see on both the daily and weekly scale, consecutive closes above channel resistance and the ATH bearish inflection.

Interesting to see price breakout then test support at resistance. We rode it down for a good week plus but did not break. Putting in the first extended period above these descending patterns now. Again, if we print a higher high above $11,788, that could be all she wrote on the Dec channel and inflection.

Feb 2017 Channel (1D)
Jun 2017 Channels (1D)

June channels also hitting pivotal territory. Support bang on the lows, and now consolidating the upper band resistance of the higher June channel. Failed to hold extended dailies above there last time but only made it halfback before pushing back up to resistance.

If we start closing dailies above here again, look out.

Aug 2017 Channel (1D)

Look at the 1D closing bars back inside the Aug channel. Aug support crossing through Jun channel resistance for the first time now. Going to get a good indication short term on which channel price wants to trade.

Right now it’s Aug channel. Will it hold?


Fibs (BFX:$BTCUSD)
Fibs Merged (1D)

Continue to hold ridiculous range on the fib scale. Very insightful chart here to see where the daily bars have closed in these ranges.

Breaking out from 4 different fibs packed into a tight range. Back into space on the Mar 2017 fibs. Big test on the Jul 361% in progress now. If that breaks, we’ll be back up to halfback on the ATH pump and pushing 423% on the Jul fibs.


Fib Pivot Points (BFX:$BTCUSD)
Annual and Monthly Pivots Merged (4H)

Interesting patterns developing here.

You can see monthly range tightening and support building. Since the ATH, we only traded above the monthly pivot for a couple weeks in early January. March just opened and continues to close positive pivot range for the first time since. With the 4H EMAs about to turn golden, will we finally break the 1M R1 for the first time in 2018?

Well surprise, surprise, look how the 1Y P is stacked right on top. Going to find out on both at the same time. Haven’t closed many candles above the 1Y P since breaking below. Hugely important monthly and annual level to keep an eye on.


We wait…


Only A Matter of Time Until the Next Parabolic Wave?
Mt. Gox (1 Month Bars) Bitfinex (1 Month Bars)

By measures observed, Bitcoin markets appear on the precipice of a massive fiat beatdown. In terms of 2018 price trends, this looks extreme. If this is a trap, prices are going to discover supply any time now. If not, it’s no supply or strong demand, either way – prices going up. Huge decisions looming in background trends. Is the next wave of parabolic markup already upon us?

When you look at potential percentage USD gains from here, it’s silly. When it all lines up this good, we have to temper expectations. When that next ATH run does come, it’s going to be one to behold. Are we really on the verge or is this perfect pattern fake out ready to dump?

Either way, biggest hands in the game calling in as we speak. About to see what’s what in Bitcoin markets. Price action alert. Imminent decisions on intersecting trends short term.

Related Threads:

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There Will Be Blood – BTFD Edition (Vol 2)

 

Aurie Philipchuk

Bitcoin fellow. Entrepreneur with a trading and investment background. Jack of all trades @Tractai.

 

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