Traction, Validation, Fundamentals, and Volatility (Your Brain on Bitcoin)

Volume is as important as price – ask anyone moving size. I’m talking bitcoin volume here for all the dollar truthers. Big hands don’t get smaller when prices go up, that size still moves. So where is it? Why aren’t mega longs unwinding? Why the slow march if the secret’s out on bulls? Crack on with it!

Why isn’t the market going vertical in dollar terms to discover $BTC supply?

You know, market forces and all – shouldn’t we expect this? Is it not fair to ask, just where in the hell are sellers and why aren’t we looking for them yet?! How are percentage losses/returns so precisely average across the board this year if the market is so mispriced on value supply range?

Shouldn’t increased traction = increased validation = increased realization of fundamentals = increased volatility?

If we’re seeing unprecedented adoption, and thus, unprecedented validation – where are fundamentals? Unprecedented markup and volatility who?

Ask us 5 years ago, who doesn’t sell 6K? I don’t know who we’d be laughing at more, the hodler or the poor bastard buying it. Well, not today, friends. No one’s selling. The Bitcoin experiment worked – and now we know.

We’d be dumping like winter on Canada if everyone wasn’t subscribed to Bitcoin fundamentals.

So, how are we still trading a minuscule fraction of fundamental potential?

Adoption and demand have gone nowhere but up, and increasingly so over time. How are returns this average? How are fundamentals so severely lagging adoption? How can relative volatility really be this low? Again, percentage terms look unspectacular for what this thing has already done. What happened to the growth curve?

If it doesn’t seem natural, it could just be tactical.

Big hands still accumulating?

Massive fundamental discount chilling, right now – out in the open, surrounded by a pack of hungry wolves. The more that crowd in, the more competition for the same decreasing $BTC liquidity. Someone is going to get desperate and hungry, this is juicy looking discount here. Seems only a matter of time before the hunt for endangered, cheap coin is on. Call it a crash up. Nobody wants to spook the prey, but nobody wants to go hungry either. How long will this market stay patient?

Big game at stake in the world’s most disruptive form of finite supply.

The hunters are circling but everyone is holding tight for parabolic markup. Maybe the ensuing chase can flush out some hidden supply? Either way, nowhere to go but up for now.

Like I said on Twitter: Freakishly bullish.

If fundamentals are worth a damn thing, we’re going, from $6000 to well beyond time and space. And we ain’t stopping until someone says uncle and parts with some bloody Bitcoin.

Update: 11/02/2017

I realized I was doing too much assuming on volume so decided to do some more research. Turns out I was wrong. I’ll update the post later but jist is – volume is way higher than expected. This shows much better signs of the market accepting value at this price. Not just a flash in the pan way up at 7K. I chatted a bit more about it here (see thread):


 

Aurie Philipchuk

Managing Partner @Tractai. Blockchain enthusiast. Jack of all trades. Interested in building the new generation of great companies? Let's connect.

 

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